Are the Bakries Set to Bail Out of Their Newmont Bid?

Analysts on Thursday said that the Bakrie group may now be less willing to team up with three local governments in West Nusa Tenggara to purchase 10 percent of PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara after the central government confirmed that it would exercise an option to buy a 14 percent stake in the miner.

Based on a $3.52 billion valuation of NNT, a 10 percent interest would be worth $352 million.

Observers said the Bakrie group had hoped that it and the local administrations would purchase the entire 31 percent stake in the firm that US-based Newmont Mining is required to divest, on the way to acquiring a controlling 51 percent position.

With the central government exercising its buy-in option, it will be harder for the Bakrie group to raise the money needed to take over the company, they said, especially if Jakarta goes ahead with its stated plan to give 14 percent to state coal miner PT Antam, in conjunction with state asset management company PIP.

“It would not be so interesting for the Bakrie group if they only ended up getting a 10 percent share of NNT,” said Edwin Sinaga, president director of brokerage firm PT Finacorporindo Nusa. “This would effectively render them a silent partner in the mine, and that is not the Bakries’ business style.

“I think they would then pull out of the partnership with the local governments,” he said.

Bakrie and three West Nusa Tenggara local administrations had aimed to purchase the entire 31 percent that the miner must divest by 2010, including 14 percent for 2008 and 2009, and another 7 percent for 2010.

The local governments have already secured the backing of the House of Representatives to purchase the 31 percent interest up to 2010, in conjunction with Bakrie unit PT Multicapital.

Reacting to the decision on Thursday, West Nusa Tenggara Governor Zainal Majdi said that he hoped the central government would rethink its decision and give the local administrations a larger share of NNT. West Nusa Tenggara Province is one of the local governments that has teamed up with Multicapital.

“We hope that we will end up with the central government’s option, as it would be the best solution for the government,” he said. “Under the deal with Multicapital, we were to take 31 percent so as to benefit the local community.”

Edwin said that if Bakrie held a 31 percent stake, it would be easy for them to then raise more money in the markets to purchase a controlling 51 percent position.

“We all know that when the Bakries make investments, they prefer to use loans rather than their own money,” Edwin said. “And with 10 percent, no lender would be interested in helping them.”

Market trader Bayburs Alfaris said that the Bakrie group’s financial position could also be hampering its plan to acquire the stake.

“From a business point of view, if you buy a 51 percent majority share of a company, you don’t have to use your own money, but this is not the case if you only own 10 percent,” Bayburs said, adding that it was debt that had driven the Bakrie group’s expansion.

But Yanuar Rizky, an independent market observer, said the Bakries could find another way to realize their plans for Newmont. “Let’s see how Antam and the government treat this stake,” he said. “If they use it as an asset and try to increase its value, I’d support them.” However, if the government planned to hold an initial public offering for the company, “then Bakrie could still sneak in,” he said.

“It may not be ‘game over’ for the Bakries just yet.”